Balance sheet, latest 10-Q.
Net cash used in operating activities, as a positive number.
Used to estimate dilution from the next raise.
Runway  
Cash exhausted around From today, at this burn
Monthly burn Operating + capex
Raise needed  
Implied dilution If raised at today's market cap
Raise vs market cap Size of the raise relative to the company

How it works
  • Monthly burn = (quarterly operating burn + quarterly capex) ÷ 3
  • Runway = (cash − debt due within 12 months) ÷ monthly burn
  • Raise needed = (monthly burn × target months) − available cash
  • Implied dilution = raise ÷ (market cap + raise), i.e. issuing at today's price

Why this is the number that matters

A small-cap that loses money has exactly three options: raise equity, raise debt, or stop. For most micro-caps the first is the only realistic one, which means that the moment the runway gets short, new shares are coming. The chart won't tell you this. The cash flow statement will, a quarter in advance.

Two refinements that make the output more honest:

The rule of thumb worth remembering

Companies rarely let the runway reach zero — they raise well before, because raising from a position of visible desperation prices terribly. In practice, expect the raise when runway falls to somewhere around six to nine months, not when the cash is gone. If your calculation says twelve months, the offering may be a quarter or two away, not a year.

What it can't see

Read next

To find the shelf, the ATM programme and the warrant overhang before the raise is announced, see how to read an SEC filing. For what a deal does to your ownership, use the dilution calculator.

Disclaimer

A general educational tool performing arithmetic on figures you supply. Not investment advice, not a valuation, not a forecast, and not a prediction that any company will or will not raise capital. See our full disclosures.