I was delighted when Arch Crawford accepted my LinkedIn invitation to connect. I’d been hearing since the 1980’s about how often he seemed to call market movements using an unconventional combination of basic technical analysis and his take on what some call the effects of planetary movements on price movements.
Barron’s has referred to him at “Wall Street’s best known astrologer.” Long ago, he practiced technical analysis at Merrill Lynch under the guidance of Robert Farrell. He’s published his forecasts in Crawford Perspectives since 1977. Forbes writer John Dobsz talked to Arch for this 2006 article.
Anyone who gets it right enough is someone I’m interested in hearing from whether it’s sophisticated artificial intelligence algorithms or astrology — as long it’s working, I’m interested. I asked Arch if he’d answer a few questions about his work and he said yes. Here’s the interview:
John Navin: What do you say to people who dismiss something as unconventional as astrology as the basis for market analysis?
Arch Crawford: I do not try to convince them — almost always a waste of time. Wall Streeters usually want to see my record. I show it — they buy it!
Navin: If Warren Buffett called you today and asked for your opinion on the stock market, what would you tell him?
Crawford: Markets are long-term overbought. Hold more cash than usual. That’s his opinion, too, by the way. He is holding more cash than usual.
Navin: A non-financial friend of mine who follows planetary charts calls this “eclipse season.” What is she talking about? In your work, how do eclipses affect markets?
Crawford: Eclipses are the most powerful single sky events and can have effects from one year before to one year after. They are most often big movement days up or down and important change dates, plus or minus 3 days or so. They can sometimes move various markets when principal planets aspect the eclipse points anytime during a 2-year period.
Navin: I know you’ve employed what’s called “the Bradley model” for you market analysis – what is that? Can you describe in basic terms how you use it?
Crawford: See “Bradley model” on the Crawford Perspectives website at: http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/faq.html#bradleyModel
Navin: Forbes writer John Dobosz interviewed in May of 2006 and you were bearish on stocks and bullish on gold. That turned out to be pretty good advice leading into the financial crisis of 2008. How did you do it?
Crawford: Combination of astronomic cycles and strong confirmation from technical market analysis. On my website homepage, under my picture, just scroll down below the full sample issues and find the links to the 2008 August/September/October Crawford Perspective Newsletters. Only 4 pages each and most are on pages 1 and 2.
Navin: Some of your best market timing success over the years has been in the gold market. What’s your take right now on the precious metal?
Crawford: My opinion on gold is that a long-term bottom is forming — 5 years long. It recently broke down from short-intermediate term trend lines and is testing its 200-week moving average. We do not like the recent action and are holding off on adding to positions. Last two weeks, it has been on an “MACD” sell signal.
We would rather see that signal reversed at least near term. Also, the 50-day moving average has dropped below the 200-day moving average and both have rolled over. That must be reversed as well. Politically all metals have been smashed recently on news of Trump tariff activity. I believe this reaction is temporary but require better technical stock action to take a more aggressive stance.
Navin: Arch, thanks.
I do not hold positions in these investments. No recommendations are made by me one way or the other. If you’re an investor, you’d want to look much deeper into each of these situations. You can lose money trading or investing in stocks. Always do your own independent research, due diligence and seek professional advice from a licensed investment advisor.